Research report
Which AI trades are actually one trade.
The AI Supercycle Map · Edition 1, data as of 8 September 2026
Twelve AI bubbles, roughly 600 US-listed names screened, 86 of them mapped into the clusters that genuinely move together. The report answers one question: which parts of the AI build-out trade as a single thing, and which only look like a theme in a headline.
Why this matters to a book, not just to a chart
A basket of eight nuclear names at an average pairwise correlation of 0.63 is one position wearing eight tickers. A basket of five hyperscalers at 0.32 is five separate bets. Size them the same way and you are carrying a concentration you never chose. The report gives the measured number for every bubble, with the pair count next to it so you can see which averages are facts and which are noise.
The finding that surprised us
The tightest cluster is not the famous one. Nuclear / SMR is the most coherent bubble on the board; AI Compute Accelerators, the trade everyone means when they say "AI", sits eighth of twelve. And in both bubbles where we maintain a forward signal layer, every short-dated signal reads bullish while the single longest-lead signal reads bearish. That shape is in the report, with all sixteen signals ordered by lead time.
The ETF overlap trap
SOXX appears in three of the twelve bubbles. AIS appears in four. Buying "one ETF per theme" is how a book ends up concentrated exactly where it looks diversified. The report maps every overlap.
What is inside
- The method in one page: average pairwise correlation, how to read it, and the pair-count caveat almost everyone skips.
- All twelve bubbles ranked by measured coherence, with the min/max pair range, the pair count, and every member ticker.
- The two clusters that are statistically too thin to rank, flagged rather than quietly averaged in.
- The ETF overlap map: which funds span which bubbles.
- Two worked case studies (DRAM / HBM memory, semiconductor equipment) with all sixteen leading signals ordered by lead time, each with its state and what it actually measures.
- A short section on what the map cannot do, written before you buy rather than after.
Buy it if
- You already hold AI names and want to know what your book is really concentrated in.
- You size positions by thesis and want the thesis measured rather than assumed.
- You want the cycle signals that lead memory and semi-equipment, with lead times attached.
Skip it if
- You want buy and sell calls. There are none here, by design and by law.
- You want a forecast. Correlation is a backward-looking window; the report says so on its first page.
- You want coverage of all twelve bubbles' forward signals. The signal layer covers two of them today, and the report is explicit about that.
How delivery works
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An educational research publication, not investment advice, trade signals, a managed account, or an advisory service. Nothing in it is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. See our disclosures.