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Gilead Sciences, Inc.
Health Care · Biotechnology
$GILD is an HIV-cash-cow funding an oncology pivot. Biktarvy (~$13B/yr, >50% U.S. HIV treatment share) is the structural anchor; lenacapavir (twice-yearly injectable PrEP, Sunlenca/Yeztugo) extends the HIV moat into 2030s and re-rates the franchise.
- Biktarvy + Descovy run-rate gives durable ~$18B HIV revenue base, patent runway protected by lenacapavir long-acting follow-on
- Lenacapavir PrEP PURPOSE-1/2 readouts: 100% / 99.9% efficacy - best-in-class data, potential category expansion vs $TGTX, ViiV
- Trodelvy expanding label (TNBC + urothelial, HR+/HER2- pending) - first real non-HIV growth leg in years
- CAR-T (Yescarta/Tecartus) ~$1.5B run-rate, gross-margin accretive vs HCV decay
- Capital return: ~3.5% dividend yield + active buyback, ~12-13x fwd P/E vs $MRK $BMY $PFE peer median
- HCV (Epclusa/Vosevi) revenue continues structural decay (~$1.5B and falling) - no replacement leg
- Veklury cliff: COVID antiviral demand collapsing, ~$2B headwind into 2026/27
- Oncology pivot still unproven at scale - Trodelvy growth decelerating, CAR-T competitive (BMY, $NVS Kymriah, Carvykti)
- Lenacapavir PrEP commercial ramp depends on payer access + Descovy cannibalization
- Biktarvy LOE 2033 - no clear post-Biktarvy HIV regimen at scale yet
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