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Biogen Inc.
Health Care · Biotechnology
MS-cashflow run-off race against new-franchise ramp. Tecfidera/Tysabri/Vumerity declining mid-to-high single digits as oral MS competition (Vumerity cannibalization, $NVS Kesimpta, $ROG Ocrevus) compresses pricing. The structural re-rate hinges on Leqembi adoption curve (slow but accelerating post-CMS coverage + subcutaneous AHEAD-3-45 readout) plus Skyclarys ex-US launches and Zurzuvae uptake in PPD.
- Leqembi (with $ESAIY): only approved disease-modifying anti-amyloid AD therapy alongside $LLY donanemab; subQ auto-injector filing accelerates outpatient adoption
- Skyclarys (Friedreich's ataxia) - only approved DMT, ~$370k/yr orphan pricing, EU + Japan launches still ramping
- Spinraza royalty stream still meaningful even as $NVS Zolgensma / Roche Evrysdi compete in SMA
- Cost-cut program (~$1B+ run-rate) and balance sheet (~$2B net cash post-Reata) allow tuck-in M&A
- MS franchise declining ~10%/yr; revenue base shrinking faster than Leqembi ramps
- Leqembi uptake disappointing vs Street model - ARIA monitoring + infusion logistics + payer friction
- $7.3B Reata + $7.3B Sage deals look expensive vs current contribution (Zurzuvae sales weak)
- Aduhelm withdrawal (2024) burned credibility on Alzheimer's commercial execution
- IRA Medicare price negotiation eligible windows on legacy MS drugs
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