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Vale S.A.
Materials · Diversified Metals & Mining
Structural: world's #1 iron ore producer (~310Mt/yr), Carajas grade (~65% Fe) sits at the low end of the global cost curve (~$22/t C1). Iron ore = ~75% of EBITDA, nickel + copper = ~20% and growing as base-metals capex scales. Dual-listed VALE3 (B3) / VALE (NYSE ADR).
Brazilian state via Previ + BNDESPar retains ~10% - political overhang on CEO succession + royalty regime.
(1) iron ore floor held $95-100/t through 2025 China slowdown - supply discipline from majors works. (2) Energy-transition copper bid - Salobo III ramp + Hu'u (Indonesia) pipeline adds ~400kt Cu by 2030. 1 in at $26B EV) crystallizes sum-of-parts.
(4) Capital return: ~8% dividend yield + buybacks; net debt target $10-20B leaves room. (5) Brazilian real weakness = USD revenue / BRL cost tailwind to margins.
(1) China steel demand structurally peaking - property sector contraction + scrap-substitution erode seaborne iron ore demand post-2027. (2) Simandou (Guinea, Rio + Chinalco + Baowu) brings ~120Mt/yr high-grade ore online 2026-28 - direct Carajas competitor.
(3) Mariana (2015) + Brumadinho (2019) tailings dam disasters still litigating - $7B+ Samarco settlement pending. (4) Operating in Brazil = royalty / export-tax / FX policy risk under any administration. (5) Nickel oversupply from Indonesian HPAL - Vale's Canadian nickel sits high on cost curve.
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