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Restaurant Brands International Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
Asset-light franchisor of four banners (BK, THI, PLK, FHS) running on 95%+ franchised model; ~$45B system-wide sales, mid-single-digit royalty take-rate plus property segment. Tim Hortons Canada is the cash cow (supply-chain + property + ads), BK International is the growth lever, Popeyes is the unit-economics darling, Firehouse the bolt-on.
3G overhang persists (~30% holder) but secondary placements have steadily reduced share.
- Net unit growth re-accelerating post-COVID; BK International + PLK International compounding low-double-digits
- "Reclaim the Flame" $400M BK US remodel program nearing inflection - comps and franchisee profitability improving off 2022 trough
- Highest-margin segment (Tim Hortons Canada) is mature + sticky, funds international reinvestment
- Royalty stream is inflation-passthrough - system sales scale with menu pricing, costs sit at franchisee level
- Dividend at ~3.5% yield with double-digit growth runway; buyback re-activated post-Firehouse digestion
- BK US still structurally behind $MCD / $WEN on traffic and brand modernization despite Reclaim the Flame
- Tim Hortons Canada franchisee litigation history; ad-fund and supply-chain margin practices recurringly contested
- Popeyes US lapped chicken-sandwich euphoria - comps now ordinary; growth must come from international where unit economics unproven at scale
- 3G overhang caps multiple vs $MCD / $YUM peers; secondary placements remain a recurring technical headwind
- FX drag (CAD weakness on THI segment, EM currencies on BK Int'l) compresses USD reported results
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