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PENN Entertainment, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Casinos & Gaming
Structural: hybrid bricks-and-clicks gaming operator - retail casino cash-cow funds a digital sports-betting build-out. 4B adj. EBITDA run-rate) is stable but no-growth; digital is the entire equity story. ESPN BET launched Nov-2023 after PENN sold Barstool back to Portnoy for $1 (writing down ~$850M); license carries fixed ~$150M/yr marketing payments to $DIS through 2033 plus ~$500M of $DIS warrants struck around $26.
ESPN BET market share stuck mid-single-digits but $DIS exit clause kicks in only if share stays under 10% through 2026 - a single hit product cycle or NBA-season conversion lift re-rates equity sharply; retail floor of ~$13-15/sh on casino EBITDA alone caps downside; insider buying through 2025.
6B net debt + $2B operating leases limits buyback capacity.