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Nextpower Inc.
Industrials · Electrical Equipment
Structural: pure-play on utility-scale solar buildout - global tracker TAM scales with every GW of large ground-mount PV; NXT is #1 by shipped GW with multi-year cost/yield lead via NX Horizon + TrueCapture AI. 45X production tax credit on US-assembled steel components is a structural margin tailwind through 2032 sunset, currently flowing through gross margin at high single-digit points.
$FLS spin removed conglomerate discount; net-cash balance sheet funds buyback + capacity.
(1) Backlog above $4B locks 2+ years of revenue visibility; (2) 45X credits compound as US assembly ramps; (3) ex-China supply chain re-shoring favors NXT vs Chinese trackers; (4) software attach (TrueCapture, NX Navigator) lifts mix toward recurring; (5) hyperscaler PPA-driven utility solar demand is structurally inflecting on AI data-center load.
(1) IRA repeal/dilution risk under hostile administration - 45X is a top-3 P&L line; (2) tariff/steel-input inflation compresses hardware margin; (3) Array $ARRY and Chinese entrants pressure pricing on undifferentiated SKUs; (4) project-finance sensitivity to long rates can defer utility-scale FIDs; (5) customer concentration on a handful of large EPCs creates lumpy order timing.
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