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McDonald's Corporation
Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Defensive QSR franchisor: ~95% franchised, royalty + rent economics insulate the P&L from commodity + labor inflation that crushes operator peers. Best Burger reformulation completing global rollout (US, EU, LatAm done; APAC in train) - modest but measurable comp lift on a 5-quarter lag.
Value-menu re-launch ($5 Meal Deal in US, McSmart in EU) addresses 2025 traffic softness from low-income US consumer trading down to grocery. Digital + loyalty (>175M MyMcDonald's members) drives frequency + ticket; delivery partners $UBER + $DASH expanding off-premise mix.
• 95% franchised model - capital-light, royalty stream compounds at unit growth + comp
• Real-estate ownership on ~55% of US sites - embedded inflation hedge + collateral
• China JV (CITIC/Carlyle minority) buyback option opens 2028+, accretive if exercised
• Loyalty + digital order mix nearing 30% of system sales - margin + frequency tailwind
• Best Burger reformulation lapping in 2H26, comp acceleration historically follows
• US low-income traffic structurally weak; value menu compresses franchisee margins
• GLP-1 demand-destruction overhang on QSR category (early data mixed, watch 2027)
• China + EU consumer softness; FX drag persistent at current DXY
• Franchisee relations strained - Field Council friction over tech fees + value menu math
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