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Adeia Inc.
Information Technology · Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Structural: pure-play royalty stream on two converging tailwinds - advanced semi packaging (DBI hybrid bonding reads on HBM3/HBM4, 3D-stacked logic, CoWoS) and media licensing on every set-top + connected TV shipped. ~12,000-patent moat, no capex, ~85% gross margin, multi-year deals provide forward visibility.
(1) hybrid-bonding adoption ramping with $MU $SK Hynix $TSM HBM stacks - Adeia collects per-unit on every interface bonded; (2) renewal cycle wave 2024-2026 across $DIS $CMCSA $T pay-TV operators at higher rates; (3) China OTT/STB enforcement gains ($XIAOMI, TCL) widening collection base; (4) net debt down from $618M (2022 spin) to ~$430M, capital return path opens; (5) optionality on AI-chiplet packaging royalty layer not in consensus.
(1) lumpy renewal-driven revenue + litigation overhang ($DISH long-running); (2) semi royalty thesis is back-end-loaded - HBM per-stack economics unproven at scale; (3) media licensing erodes as linear TV declines; (4) single-segment IP-co re-rating capped without a marquee semi anchor deal disclosed; (5) patent expiry cliffs require continuous prosecution spend.
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