Actualités

Treasury yields are on pace for a weekly decline following signs of cooling inflation that bolster odds of a Fed hold, not hike, next month. Oil prices edge higher as the supply chain remains choked in the Middle East and the White House threatens Iran with more economic isolation.

Bond yields dropped sharply and Nasdaq futures climbed after a cooler-than-expected inflation report this morning. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index rose, while those tied to the Dow industrials edged lower.

Bond yields dropped and stocks kept rising after the Federal Reserve’s benchmark inflation gauge matched expectations. The core personal expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is watched closely by the central bank, rose at a 0.

Treasury yields and the dollar rise amid tense negotiations in the Middle East. Oil prices decline as mediators say U.S.-Iran talks will continue this week, following a rocky start. The long disruption in global oil supplies, however, keeps inflation fears elevated.

Treasury yields rise as Fed governor Waller turns hawkish and U.S. consumer sentiment falls more than expected. Waller says a prolonged Middle East conflict increases the risk of energy inflation spreading across the economy, hence the Fed should stop signaling a rate cut as its most likely next move.

The Treasury selloff takes a break, causing yields to fall slightly as markets worry about the inflationary consequences of the U.S.-Iran standoff. Oil futures slip, but remain high enough to keep policymakers on their toes.

The selloff in U.S. government bonds has paused for now, but it’s gotten Wall Street to ask: How much more turmoil would it take to push President Trump to soften his stance on Iran? The textbook example took place in April last year, when a messy sell-off in the bond market led Trump to pause sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. “Judging by the post-'Liberation Day’ episode last spring, market conditions might need to get considerably worse to generate a similar full-scale retreat,” Capital Economics wrote in a research note Tuesday.

Bond yields nearly rose to levels seen in March during the height of fears over the Iran War–but it shouldn’t frighten investors. Much of the gains in yields came ahead of that hour as the Treasury market sold off alongside rising oil prices. Multiple Fed presidents didn’t support the inclusion of an easing bias, or potential lower rates in the future, in the FOMC statement, telling traders the Fed is likely closer to hikes than cuts.

The U.S. debt market selloff picked up after the Fed left rates steady again. The Fed left rates steady but there was a higher level of dissent among participants. Fed governor Stephen Miran has typically dissented, but this time there were also multiple Fed presidents who didn’t support statement language including “an easing bias.”